Market Update For January 4th, 2013

This morning we are getting some movement in the gold market as the FOMC yesterday came out with some “hawkish” comments in regard to monetary accommodation suggesting that the stimulus may be cut off sooner than indicated earlier. The news has the gold down over 2.5% today to about $1640 per ounce. Bonds are showing a little weakness on the news down about a quarter point.

In Europe inflation remained unchanged at 2.2% and while the number is good it is still above the 2% target set by the ECB. Euro markets are up slightly this morning on the news.

In North America we got the employment number this morning and Canada once again surprised with an increase of 39000 jobs in December vs. 5000 estimated. Also the unemployment rate fell to 7.1% from 7.2% in November. In the US 155000 new jobs were created last month vs. 152000 estimated which was in line and continues to show that there is consistent job creation occurring in the US. November’s numbers were revised up to 171000 vs. 147000. The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 7.8% from, 7.7%. US futures are looking to open slightly higher on the news. Canada however will likely be lower due to the gold decline regardless of the good employment numbers.

Lastly this morning we continue to see the real estate bubble deflating with some numbers out of both Vancouver and Toronto. In Vancouver, real estate sales feel more than 20% year over year in 2012 and the trend is forecast to continue. In Toronto, condo sales have ground to a halt with December sales off 27% from the previous month. Listings are increasing and units are just not moving. Will 2013 be the year the bubble bursts, we shall see.

Courtesy of:

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI
Portfolio Manager & Branch Manager
Independent Wealth Management

www.canaccord.com

Market Update for December 21st, 2012

The US Government continue to play with fire as the Reps et al at the end of the day yesterday determined it made sense to pull the vote for the Plan B fiscal cliff deal as they felt there was not enough support to get the deal passed.  That occurred around 9 last night and immediately markets and futures sold off.  Asia and Europe are off more than half a point while US futures are currently showing about a 1.50% decline pre-opening.  In contrast we are getting a nice bounce in the debt markets across the board by about a half a point at the long end of the curve which will help cushion the blow in portfolios today.

Gold is up about 3 bucks which is light under the circumstances and oil is off over 1% to just over $89 a barrel.

Economic news out of both Canada and the US showed continued economic recovery with CPI stable, personal spending and personal income both increasing vs. estimates.

RIM came with earnings last night and while the loss was less, revenues were better and the cash bleed has slowed, after looking into the numbers further, it would seem that the BB10 will have to be a home run in the New Year to keep this train rolling.  Interestingly, after the news was released last night the stock overseas rallied at first up about 10%.  This morning after dissemination it would seem that all the shine is gone and in the pre-market the stock is looking to open down about 11%.

Courtesy of:

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI
Portfolio Manager & Branch Manager
Independent Wealth Management

www.canaccord.com