September 27th, 2013 Business & Market Update

Seeing some weakness in Japan overnight regardless of the fact that inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in September in the past two years.  China was a little stronger on no real news.

Europe is lower trading on the Debt Ceiling impasse, despite economic confidence in the region moving to a 2 year high.  Markets there are off about a quarter point.  Our former BOC leader Mark Carney, now head of the Bank of England suggested that continued positive recovery in the UK would suggest no new stimulus is necessary at this time.  UK markets are off about three quarters of point on the news.

Moving to the US traders continue to square books for the weekend in regard to the Debt Ceiling issue causing futures to decline this morning by about a third of a point.  In my view it is still short term noise that will be dealt with, maybe not over the weekend or on Monday but a solution will come and we will move on.  Opportunities will be apparent based on this short term positioning and we will take advantage of them should they fit into my mandates.  Interestingly, over the past 25 years, the US government has “shut down” 17 times for varying periods and the response once agreement was made was an average increase in capital markets over the next month of around 0.7%.  I have added a piece this morning from our US Strategist, Tony Dwyer to provide some insight into the big picture.  We are also seeing bonds rally this morning as money goes to safe asset with 10 year yields falling to 2.63% in the US and 2.56% in Canada.

The data that I am more interested in is the Employment numbers for September that will be released next Friday.

Canadian markets are following the US lead down about a quarter point.

Gold is higher by 12.00 to 1336 on a weaker US dollar, oil is off slightly to 102.39 and the loonie is virtually flat at 96.9.

Lastly, whether you agree with the Keystone Pipeline or not, I did find it somewhat refreshing to see our Prime Minister call out the US government yesterday suggesting that we would not take no for an answer.  It was a direct shot at the Obama government which in my opinion needs to happen more often, but that’s for another day.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI

Branch Manager & Portfolio Manager | Independent Wealth Management

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management

July 17th, 2013 Business & Market Update

Today is the day of central bankers as Mark Carney – BOE Governor, Stephen Poloz – BOC Governor and Ben Bernanke – FOMC Head all are providing guidance on monetary policy for each of their respective countries.  Carney has already made his comments and basically is leaving the current asset buying program and interest rates as is.  Poloz and Bernanke are due to speak later this morning and I would suggest that Poloz will do nothing and Bernanke will continue to put the clarify the tapering program parameters (employment levels, inflation levels etc.).  His testimony to congress starts at 10am EDT however the minutes of the speech have been released.  Highlights of the speech, the US economy is still vulnerable to outside shocks (Europe, China etc.), employment is far from satisfactory and bond purchases are not on a pre-set course.  Markets did not move substantially on the remarks but did move slightly higher.

Staying with the US, Housing Starts and Permits both missed by large margins in June which most of which is attributed to the increase in mortgage rates, the weather and supply issues in the South.

In earnings news, mandate companies Mattel and US Bank reported this morning. Mattel missed in both earnings and revenue while US Bank beat on earnings and missed on revenue.

In Asia overnight markets were mixed with China down about a point and Japan flat.

Canadian markets are poised to open higher by about a half a point anticipating no change to the BOC policy position.

Gold is up a couple of points to 1294, oil is higher by 9 cents to 105.77 and the loonie is flat at 96.30.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI

Branch Manager & Portfolio Manager | Independent Wealth Management

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management