November 7th, 2013 Business & Market Update

Asia sold off overnight by about three quarters of a point awaiting the economic news out of Europe and the US.

Europe at midday is rallying on the news that the ECB has cut its overnight rate in half to 0.25% to combat continued deflation in the region.  Markets are higher by 1.5%.  Draghi suggested that the economy is starting to show positive signs across the entire region and by supplying more liquidity that trend should continue into 2014.

In the US, Q3 GDP on a year over year basis came in at 2.8% vs. estimates at 2.0%.  This is a large beat and shows that economic recovery is continuing at a stronger pace than thought over the last quarter.  The previous month year over year was not revised confirming the stronger numbers.  Also, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were released and came in at 336000 vs. 335000 estimated.  The decline from last week was 9000.  Last week was revised higher by 5000 so the net over the last two weeks is in the range that is acceptable and it would seem stable.  Futures are pointing higher by about a half a point in the US and about a quarter point in Canada on the back of the positive news.

Gold is selling off into the news down 15.00 to 1302, oil is off 0.32 to 94.48 and the loonie is weaker by 0.30 to 95.70.  USD strength today is moving the commodities markets lower.  Bond markets are stronger across the entire curve this morning with the ten year yields falling in both the US and Canada to 2.64% and 2.53% respectively.

In mandate earnings news this morning, BCE missed by 2 cents on the bottom line but reaffirmed guidance for the balance of the year and the accretive effect of the Astral merger on 2014.  Manulife beat on both the bottom and top lines, RioCan beat on the bottom line and on Funds From Operations (FFO) and Sun Life beat on both the bottom and top line.

Twitter comes to the market today with a final IPO price of $26.00 under the symbol TWTR.  It will be interesting to see how the stock trades out of the box as all will be comparing it to the Facebook debacle of two years ago.

Lastly, tomorrow the October Non-farm Payroll numbers will be released and will be somewhat skewed due to the US government shutdown, however they will provide some insight going into the holiday season.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI

Branch Manager & Portfolio Manager | Independent Wealth Management

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management

November 4th, 2103 Business & Market Update

A light overnight session as China was closed for a holiday.  Japan was off about a point on continued US dollar strength.

Europe is up about a half a point at midday on continued positive factory data, however deflation is still a problem and it will be interesting to see what Mr. Draghi has to say this week in his monthly presser in regard to a more accommodative stance.

Futures in the US and Canada are pointing higher this morning by about a third of a point as traders position themselves going into the employment numbers that are due out Friday.

Gold is up a couple of bucks 1317, oil is down 0.34 to 94.28 and the loonie is stronger by 0.12 to 96.09.  The 10 year bonds in the US and Canada are both trading higher this morning with yields at 2.60% and 2.48% respectively.

Lastly this morning, it would seem that the Fairfax team couldn’t get the financing together for the Blackberry purchase that was to close today, so they have done the following:  Fired the CEO, brought in John Chen (former Sybase exec to run it), Watsa is now on the board, float a $1bn convertible bond which Watsa and Fairfax and some other investors will invest in and keep the company a public entity.  It would seem the street is not to happy with it as the stock is trading down in the pre-market about 18%.  Interestingly, the stock price is now getting to a level where the company is trading for the cash in bank.  It will be interesting to see where it goes today and to further disseminate the news.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI

Branch Manager & Portfolio Manager | Independent Wealth Management

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management