August 20th, 2013 Business & Market Update

Overnight in Asia, markets were off more than 2% on the declines in North America and continued concerns over the situation in the middle east and the Fed minutes release later today.

Europe is off about 1% at midday for the same reasons.

The North American futures however are pointing higher with the US up about a third of a point and Canada just slightly positive.

Gold is up about 4.00 to 1370, oil is lower by 0.90 to 105.96 and the loonie is off half a cent at 96.19.

Bonds are rallying today with 10 year yields in Canada at 2.68% and in the US at 2.83%.  My analysis on the fixed income markets going forward has been completed and I will be implementing the changes before the end of the month.

Lastly, for those that may have forgot , the US Debt Ceiling limit that was extended to September 30th from May is looming and will once again need to be raised.  I do believe it will happen, however the bond buying that the Fed continues to do will have to be pulled back at some point to reduce the continuing escalation of the cumulative debt.  Also, Obama care is at the point of implementation and it will also cause the public debt to increase along with taxes.  With that said, there will also be some great opportunities in the health care area as more are able to utilize services they could not before.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI

Branch Manager & Portfolio Manager | Independent Wealth Management

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management

July 3rd, 2013 Business and Market Update

In Asia the Chinese PMI numbers were released and were a nice surprise to the upside in regard to the services sector.  However the construction industry is continuing to stagnate. Markets there were off about a point overnight.

In Europe, while we continue to see improvement across the board for a reasonable recovery in the the second half of the year, markets have sold off at midday by about 1.5% on news that Portugal is once again in trouble as 10 year bonds there broke through the 8% level yesterday.  There have been some issues within the government in regard to difference of opinion on the austerity programs running in the country.  Threatened resignations from a couple of ministers in the finance department have the markets concerned.

In the US lots of employment information this morning and most of it good.  The ADP Private Payrolls for June were released and came in well above the estimate of 160000 at 188000.  We also got Initial Weekly Jobless Claims that were just below estimates of 345000 at 343000.  Both numbers suggest that the employment picture continues to improve, albeit at a slow pace.  Markets are trending lower however on the world news and the unrest in Egypt.  Futures are off about a quarter point, which is about half as much as when I came into the office at 7am indicating the jobs numbers have had some effect on moderating markets.  The monthly employment numbers for June will be released on Friday, due to the US Independence Day holiday tomorrow.

Canadian futures are lower by about a quarter point regardless of the resource uptick.

Gold is higher by about 5 bucks to 1250, oil continues its run higher on the continued unrest in Egypt by about 1.75 to 101.25.  This latest run on oil is due to the situation in Egypt which does suggest that no matter what anyone suggests self sustaining fossil fuel production makes a great deal of sense for North America as the unrest in the Middle East never seems to end.  The loonie is virtually flat at 94.75.

With the US holiday tomorrow, markets to the south close at 1pm today and reopen on Friday. Also, volumes in Toronto will be light through to the end of the week.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI

Branch Manager & Portfolio Manager | Independent Wealth Management

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management

June 21st, 2013 Business Update

The last day of spring was a red one with markets all over the planet down about 2.5% on the day with no safe place to hide.  Gold was off more than $80.00 and bonds, the safe place that all are supposed to go fell in price as yields rose.  If you were going to suggest that none of that made any sense, you would be correct.  Every asset class yesterday fell in value (except cash) which in most cases would suggest a capitulation as traders try run away.  Not surprisingly, this is when investors remain in the game, rotate sectors in an orderly manner and add to oversold positions (in this case essential services).

Overnight in Asia, bargain hunters came back to the table driving Japan higher by more than 1.5%.  China and Australia both were off about a half a point on real economic news as China injected some cash into the banking system.

Europe is trading slightly higher as markets there have turned in the last hour on new real news other than day traders are taking profit at midday and waiting for direction as North American markets open.

Futures in the US are higher by about a half a point as are TSX 60 futures.  Investors and traders are looking for some bargains this morning after the sell off yesterday.

Gold is up 6 bucks to 1292, oil is flat at 95.07 and the loonie is off half a cent to 95.63.

The Friday bond report reiterates what I have been commenting on all week, so the news is not new.  With that said, in the US, 2yr yields were up to 0.327% vs. 0.278% last Friday, 10yr – 2.406% vs. 2.138% and 30yr – 3.48% vs. 3.32%.  In Canada, 2yr – 1.179% vs. 1.112%, 10yr – 2.239% vs. 2.124% and 30yr – 2.804% vs. 2.689%.  Again, while yields have increased I believe all will agree that giving the US or Canadian Government money for 30 years at 2.8% or 3.32% would be financially prudent.

The speed at which markets are moving continues to suggest organized methodical changes to portfolios which I continue to practice.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI

Branch Manager & Portfolio Manager | Independent Wealth Management

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management


June 12th, 2013 Market Update

After another negative day in the markets yesterday, we are seeing a rebound in Europe and in North American futures this morning.

Asia, fell in concert with North America overnight dropping about a half a point in most markets.

Europe is rebounding this at midday on positive industrial production numbers for April.  Markets there are up about a half a point.  In other news out of the region, Morgan Stanley has moved Greece into the Emerging Markets Index which is a substantial downgrade to the country from industrialized nation.

North America is going to open higher with futures in the US and Canada up about a half a point.

We continue to see continued volatility in the defensive securities which, in my view is providing buying opportunities which I am taking advantage of in many of my mandates.

Gold is off about 5 bucks to 1375, oil is flat at 95.60 and the loonie is up a third of a cent to 98.40.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI

Branch Manager & Portfolio Manager | Independent Wealth Management

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management


May 21st, 2013 Market Update

Overnight there was some weakness in the Asian markets as corporate Japan is suggesting the fall in the currency is enough and stability or a slight increase is warranted.  Costs to exporters continue to rise as the currency falls and it would seem that the sweet spot has been by passed according to reports out the country.  Markets in the region are mixed off just slightly from yesterdays close.

Europe is off about a half a point this morning as markets are quiet going into the Bernanke congressional testimony later today.

The US markets are however pointing to a slightly higher open up about a quarter point.

Commodities continue to be under pressure as gold is off another 16.00 to 1368, oil is down a quarter point to 96.67 and the Loonie is down about a half a cent to 97.22.

Lastly, as I am sure most are aware by now there was a severe tornado in Oklahoma yesterday that has devastated a small town and killed many, including several children.  Take a moment and think of those affected today sending positive thoughts.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI

Branch Manager & Portfolio Manager | Independent Wealth Management

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management

May 8th, 2013 Market Update

Asia rallied overnight as the Dow and S&P continued the upward trend yesterday.  Japan continues to move higher due to the aggressive monetary policy to increase inflation.  Chinese exports increased dramatically in April which moved that market higher overnight also.  However there was some currency speculation which may have distorted the data somewhat.

In Europe, German March industrial output increased by 1.2% vs. estimates of a 0.1% decrease which has indices trading up about a quarter to a half a point.

In the US no economic news this morning and other than a few earnings reports the markets are relatively flat.  Futures are currently off slightly.

In Canada, mandate company Enbridge reported this morning and the pipeline company reported a 31 percent rise in first-quarter adjusted profit driven by higher volumes.  Earnings at $0.62 came in well ahead of consensus estimates at $0.51.

After trading down dramatically yesterday, Gold is moving higher this morning up 17.00 to 1466.  Oil is also higher by about 15 cents to 95.77 and the Loonie is flat at 99.55.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI

Branch Manager & Portfolio Manager | Independent Wealth Management

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management

April 24th, 2013 Business and Market Updates

This morning we are seeing some mixed markets with Asia up large overnight (2%) on the rally in Europe and the US.

Europe is higher at midday by about a half a point regardless of Germany’s continued slowing economy.  The players are convinced that the ECB will come to the table with more stimulus (interest rate drop) holding markets there higher by about three quarters of a point.

In the US Durable Goods for March were off 5.7% vs. estimates of 3.0% indicating that big ticket items were in decline for the month.  After a 4.3% increase in February the numbers do show the continued volatility in the sector.  US futures are trending higher this morning up slightly over yesterday’s close.

Apple released their earnings yesterday and beat the street estimates on both the top and bottom line.  However the guidance for the rest of the year was quite cautious.  The company did report a $50bn share buyback and a dividend increase of 15% bringing the yield at the current price to just over 3%.

In other earnings news, mandate companies Metro and CP Rail both released with Metro meeting expectations and CP beating on both the top and bottom line. CP’s operating ratio also improved from the last quarter which is a great measurement of whether managements plan is having success.

Gold is trading higher this morning up 20.00 to 1428.00, oil is higher up 28 cents to 89.46 and the Loonie is flat at 97.44.

Kenneth A. Dick, BA, CIM, CFP, FCSI